Cobalt Supply & Demand (2026)
| Metric | 2026 Data | Change YoY | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Production | 220,000 MT | +8% | 70% from DRC |
| Battery Demand | 165,000 MT | +15% | 75% of total demand |
| Refined Production | 180,000 MT | +10% | 80% in China |
| Price Range 2026 | $28,000-35,000/MT | -5% | Oversupply pressure |
Cobalt in Battery Chemistry
NMC Cathode Compositions
| Chemistry | Co Content | kg Co/kWh | Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMC 111 | 20% | 0.36 | 5% |
| NMC 622 | 20% | 0.24 | 35% |
| NMC 811 | 10% | 0.12 | 25% |
| NCA | 9% | 0.11 | 10% |
| LFP (Co-free) | 0% | 0 | 25% |
Major Cobalt Mines
Democratic Republic of Congo (70% of global supply)
- Tenke Fungurume: CMOC (80%), 18,500 MT Co/year
- Mutanda: Glencore (100%), 25,000 MT Co/year
- Katanga: Glencore (75%), 20,000 MT Co/year
- Metalkol RTR: ERG (70%), 14,000 MT Co/year
- Artisanal Mining: 15-20% of DRC production, child labor concerns
Other Producers
- Indonesia: 12% of global supply (nickel laterite by-product)
- Australia: 4% (nickel sulfide by-product)
- Cuba: 3% (Moa Bay, Sherritt)
- Philippines: 3% (Nickel Asia)
- Russia: 3% (Nornickel)
Cobalt Products & Specifications
Cobalt Metal
- Grade: 99.8% min (LME deliverable)
- Form: Cathodes, ingots, briquettes
- Packaging: 250kg drums
- Price: $32,500/MT (March 2026)
Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade)
- Formula: CoSO₄·7H₂O
- Co Content: 20.5% minimum
- Impurities: Fe <10ppm, Cu <10ppm, Ni <50ppm
- Price: $7,200/MT CIF China
- Premium: 22-25% payable vs metal price
Cobalt Hydroxide
- Co Content: 30-35% (intermediate product)
- Source: DRC mines
- Price: 75-80% payable vs metal
Trading & Risk Management
LME Cobalt Contract
- Contract Size: 1 metric ton
- Minimum Fluctuation: $0.50/MT
- Daily Limit: None
- Delivery: Physical, approved warehouses
- Open Interest: 15,000 tonnes
- Volatility: 35-45% annualized
Key Trading Considerations
- DRC Risk: Political instability, mining code changes
- China Control: 80% of refining capacity
- ESG Pressure: Responsible sourcing requirements
- Substitution: Shift to low-Co and Co-free batteries
- By-product Nature: 60% from copper/nickel mines
Lithium-Cobalt Synergies
Battery Manufacturing
- Both critical for high-energy NMC cathodes
- Co provides thermal stability, Li provides energy capacity
- Typical NMC811: 60kg Li₂CO₃ + 12kg Co per EV
- Supply chain overlap in cathode production
Price Correlation
- Historical correlation: 0.65 (2020-2026)
- Both driven by EV adoption rates
- Divergence during supply shocks (DRC for Co, Chile for Li)
Strategic Procurement
- Bundle purchasing for better terms
- Hedge both metals for cathode cost stability
- Monitor Li:Co price ratio (currently 0.63)